Public hearings are over. On Thursday, the last witnesses in the impeachment investigation that threatens Donald Trump spoke in Congress, denouncing including "Russian fictions" promoted by some Republicans. Now, Democrats, who accuse the US president of pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, will, except surprise, write articles impeachment. With a vote that could take place by Christmas, and be followed by a trial in the Senate early 2020. Explanations.
Last day of auditions
Last Thursday, a White House advisor indirectly criticized the president who, in addition to Joe Biden, asked Ukraine to investigate alleged Ukrainian interference in the 2016 presidential election for the benefit of Democrats. "It's a fiction that was created and propagated by the Russian security services," said Fiona Hill, a senior official with the National Security Council. "Please do not propagate for political reasons lies that clearly serve Russian interests," she told reporters, reminding them that the US intelligence services had concluded that Moscow had ingested in the 2016 campaign, not Ukraine.
It is notably Donald Trump's obsession with a conspiracy theory (accusing Ukraine of hacking the servers of the Democratic Party and then bowing to Russia) that seems to have been in the course of his lawyer Rudy Giuliani in Ukraine. And during his call to Russian President Zelensky, Donald Trump asked him to "look" at the activities of Joe Biden's son in Ukraine and "Crowdstrike", the name of the company that investigated party piracy. Democrat.
An impeachment for Christmas?
Over the last eight days, twelve witnesses heard in Congress have delivered many evidence against the US president, without shaking the elected Republicans. Democrats accuse the Republican president of abusing his position to pressure Kiev, including freezing a military aid of nearly $ 400 million voted by Congress. Donald Trump denies any pressure, assures that his call was "perfect" and claims to be the victim of an unprecedented "witch hunt".
From now on, Democrats will debate and draft impeachment articles (such as "abuse of power", "corruption" and "obstruction of justice"). According to CNN, a vote is likely by Christmas. And because Democrats have a comfortable majority in the House, it is highly likely that Donald Trump will become the third "impeached" president in history after Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton (at Watergate, Nixon). had resigned had the vote to avoid the humiliation of an assured dismissal).
A two-week trial in the Senate?
On paper, Republicans, who have a 53-seat majority in the Senate, could vote to block any lawsuit. But such a shot of poker would be politically risky. According to the Washington Post, Republicans are leaning for a short two-week trial. The 100 senators form the jury and the head of the Supreme Court presides. Several Democrats in the House will play the roles of the prosecutor, including Adam Schiff and Donald Trump will be defended by lawyers of his choice, then the Senate will vote. It takes a two-thirds majority to remove a president, which never happened. With 53 Republicans, it would take almost half (20) vote with the Democrats to reach the 67 votes needed. That will never happen, and it is the American people who will be called to vote at the ballot box on November 3, 2020.